Preseason Rankings
Western Athletic
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
93 New Mexico St. 43.0%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 4 +5.1      +1.1 129 +4.0 57 69.0 180 0.0 1 0.0 1
114 Grand Canyon 30.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 4 +3.5      -0.3 176 +3.8 63 70.5 137 0.0 1 0.0 1
152 Utah Valley 16.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 6 +0.7      +0.1 165 +0.6 148 69.0 182 0.0 1 0.0 1
204 Cal St. Bakersfield 6.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 7 -2.6      -3.4 270 +0.8 140 63.6 316 0.0 1 0.0 1
244 Seattle 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 8 -4.8      -3.0 259 -1.8 240 68.0 206 0.0 1 0.0 1
279 UMKC 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 9 -6.2      -3.8 276 -2.4 260 72.0 96 0.0 1 0.0 1
288 California Baptist 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 15 7 - 9 -6.9      -4.0 284 -3.0 280 70.0 152 0.0 1 0.0 1
311 UT Rio Grande Valley 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 20 6 - 10 -8.7      -4.9 303 -3.8 291 81.9 8 0.0 1 0.0 1
350 Chicago St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 26 2 - 14 -16.4      -9.0 347 -7.5 347 77.4 25 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
New Mexico St. 2.0 47.9 25.2 13.1 6.9 3.8 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Grand Canyon 2.4 35.9 26.5 16.9 9.9 5.6 3.1 1.4 0.7 0.0
Utah Valley 3.2 19.0 21.7 22.0 15.4 10.4 6.3 3.2 1.7 0.2
Cal St. Bakersfield 4.3 8.0 13.2 17.0 18.0 15.9 12.8 8.7 5.1 1.2
Seattle 5.0 3.9 7.9 12.6 15.8 18.1 16.2 13.6 9.4 2.6
UMKC 5.5 2.3 5.5 8.6 13.5 16.7 18.1 16.9 13.7 4.5
California Baptist 5.8 2.0 4.4 8.1 11.6 16.2 17.7 18.7 15.5 5.8
UT Rio Grande Valley 6.4 0.9 2.6 5.1 9.0 11.8 16.6 21.1 23.3 9.5
Chicago St. 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.2 9.6 22.5 60.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
New Mexico St. 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.1 3.4 5.4 7.9 12.0 15.3 17.4 16.6 12.8 5.8
Grand Canyon 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 3.1 5.1 8.0 10.4 13.9 15.7 15.4 13.6 8.4 3.4
Utah Valley 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 3.9 6.8 8.8 12.3 13.8 15.0 13.3 10.6 7.1 3.5 0.9
Cal St. Bakersfield 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.0 6.2 9.7 11.7 12.2 12.8 12.8 10.6 7.9 5.3 2.7 0.9 0.2
Seattle 8 - 8 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.0 7.0 9.8 11.9 13.5 13.7 12.2 10.0 7.1 4.2 2.4 0.9 0.4 0.1
UMKC 7 - 9 0.3 1.2 3.5 6.4 9.3 12.4 13.7 13.6 12.1 10.4 7.4 4.5 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 7 - 9 0.3 1.7 4.2 7.6 10.8 13.4 13.6 13.4 11.8 8.7 6.3 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 6 - 10 0.8 3.5 6.7 11.3 13.9 14.4 14.4 11.8 8.4 6.8 3.8 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 2 - 14 15.8 22.1 21.2 16.9 10.8 6.5 3.6 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico St. 47.9% 36.0 10.3 1.5 0.1 0.0
Grand Canyon 35.9% 25.0 9.2 1.6 0.1 0.0
Utah Valley 19.0% 12.0 5.6 1.2 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 8.0% 4.7 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
Seattle 3.9% 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
UMKC 2.3% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
California Baptist 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.9% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico St. 43.0% 41.6% 1.4% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.3 3.7 8.1 10.5 9.0 5.2 2.4 57.0 2.4%
Grand Canyon 30.8% 29.9% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 2.3 4.9 6.9 6.2 5.3 3.1 69.2 1.4%
Utah Valley 16.2% 15.9% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 3.4 4.1 3.1 1.9 83.8 0.4%
Cal St. Bakersfield 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.1 93.4 0.0%
Seattle 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 96.7 0.0%
UMKC 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 97.9 0.0%
California Baptist 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.3 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
New Mexico St. 43.0% 1.6% 42.4% 10.5% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 30.8% 1.9% 29.8% 5.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 16.2% 0.9% 15.8% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 6.6% 1.2% 6.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 3.3% 0.7% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 2.1% 0.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.2 2.8 0.0
1st Round 97.2% 1.0 2.8 95.2 2.0 0.0
2nd Round 19.3% 0.2 80.7 19.1 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.7 0.0
Elite Eight 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0